Authors : Fazidah A. Siregar, Mohamed Rusli Abdullah, Julia Omar, Sori Muda Sarumpaet, Teguh Supriyadi, Tri Makmur and Nurul Huda
Abstract: Transmission of dengue virus depends on the presence, density and distribution of Aedes mosquitoes and the development of these mosquitoes is known to be influenced by climate. This study was performed to determine the influence of climatic factors on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and to help predict the occurrence of DHF in North Sumatera Province, Indonesia. Monthly reported dengue cases and climate data for the years 2003-2011 were obtained from the district health offices and the Climatological Division of the Meteorological Department of North Sumatera Province, respectively. The climatic data comprised the monthly total rainfall, monthly rainy days, the monthly average, minimum and maximum temperatures and average relative humidity. A time series analysis was conducted by using a cross-correlation function and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling to predict the occurrence of DHF and the influence of climate on dengue was examined by a time series regression approach. The results demonstrated that the reported DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. Temperature, rainfall, rainy days and humidity all play roles in sustaining and increasing the dengue incidence in North Sumatera Province. The SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1) Model had the lowest mean square error and was the best model. The SARIMA Model could be applied to predict the occurrence of DHF in North Sumatera Utara Province and could assist with public health decisions needed to prevent and control the disease.
Fazidah A. Siregar, Mohamed Rusli Abdullah, Julia Omar, Sori Muda Sarumpaet, Teguh Supriyadi, Tri Makmur and Nurul Huda, 2015. Climate Variability and a Disease Forecasting Model for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in North Sumatera Province, Indonesia. Research Journal of Medical Sciences, 9: 18-27.