Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences

Year: 2009
Volume: 6
Issue: 4
Page No. 219 - 223

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence from Nigeria

Authors : Olusegun A. Omisakin

Abstract: This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis for the case of Nigeria. In carrying out this task, the study investigates both the causal and dynamic long run nature of the relationship between economic growth and export by using annual time series data from Nigeria. These series include output (y), which is measured by gross domestic product, export value (exp), import value (im), exchange rate (exr), labour stock (lbr) measured in terms of labour force and capital stock (cap), which is also measured by gross capital formation, respectively. The data are expressed in their real forms. The data scope ranges from 1970-2006. The econometric procedure followed in this study is clear. The study employs the Toda-Yamamoto non-causality test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing cointegration technique. The unit root test result indicates that the variables are all stationary at first difference, i.e., they are I(1) series. Meanwhile, the result of Toda-Yamamoto non-causality test shows, a bidirectional relationship between output and export. The result of bounds testing cointegration analysis suggests a long run relationship among the variables when the vector of variables is normalized on output. All variables, with exception of capital, display high level of statistical significance in explaining output. Of special interest to this study is the long run relationship between output growth and export growth. The result is not invariant with economic intuition. For instance, with about 10% increase in the growth of export, there is a corresponding increase of about 35% in output growth. The adjusted R2 of 0.79 gave an indication that the variables under consideration explain a high proportion of variation in output of about 79%. The findings as revealed in this study thus, support the export-led growth hypothesis for the case of Nigeria.

How to cite this article:

Olusegun A. Omisakin , 2009. Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence from Nigeria. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 6: 219-223.

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