Authors : E.A. Ogujor and P.A. Kuale
Abstract: A Reliability Indices-Markov model for up-coming year reliability prediction suitable for Electric Power Distribution Reliability Assessment is presented. This model was developed using the IEEE Std 1366TM 2003 and Markov chain. The model was calibrated with 2003 power outage data and validated using 2004 data collected from the monopolistic operator of the Nigerian power system, National Electric Power Authority (now unbundled and called Power Holding Company of Nigeria, (PHCN) Plc) on the four feeders: Uselu, Ugbowo, Eguadaiken and FGGC Road feeders radiating from the 2�15 MVA transformers, 33/11kV Ugbowo injection substation. A maximum error in prediction of -0.12% was obtained in the Eguadaiken feeder while a minimum error of -5.5% is obtained in Ugbowo feeder. Due to these low error margins, the model can be used confidently.
E.A. Ogujor and P.A. Kuale , 2007. Using Reliability Indices-Markov model in Electric Power Distribution Reliability Assessment. International Journal of Electrical and Power Engineering, 1: 416-420.